Archive for September 22nd, 2016

The Case for Illinois

Thursday, September 22nd, 2016

Context:

In 2004, when Barrack Obama was running for first term in the Senate and George W. Bush was running for re-election to the presidency, 1 million voters in Illinois voted for both of them.

In 2010, Pat Quinn (D) won the governorship by winning 2 counties of 104.

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In 2014, Bruce Rauner (R) beat Pat Quinn by winning 103 of 104 counties.

quinnraunerAs these are off-year elections, it is important to include the last presidential elections to get a grasp on the possible turn-out.

obamamccain2008

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https://www.elections.il.gov/ElectionResults

Between 2008 and 2012 Obama lost 4% of his support.

That brings us to this poll.

http://myweb.loras.edu/Loras/PDF/LorasILSurveySept2016.pdf

moeillinoisThis is where I am having trouble. The party composition would have the democrat candidate +17 if the poll used the results of the 2012 election. But as Obama dropped 4% from 2008 to 1012 it would naturally follows that the 13% the poll suggests Clinton is winning by is a reference to another 4% loss from 2012 to 2016. Conveniently, the poll has a margin of error of 4%.

Here is the composition of the poll:

demographicsillpollAs you can see from the two governor elections, these demographics are not realistic. The Dem/ Repub ratio is much closer to even. So if I make both Repubs and Dems 174 (To make them even) and take 89 from the Dems we then have:

Republicans ………………………………………………………………………………………………..174………………….34.05%

Democrats………………………………………………………………………………..174…………………34.05%

Independents……………………………………………………………………………117………………….22.90%

Something Else……………………………………………………………………………………………..46………………….09.00%

 

question12The 89 votes I took away from the Democrats come off the top of these numbers. 284-89= 195 thus we have:

Total Clinton………………………………………………………………………………………195…………………38.12%

Total Trump……………………………………………………………………………………….198…………………38.74%

Total Unsure and Refused…………………………………………………………………….67………………….13.11%

This is where the context of the governor elections come into play. In 2010 Democrats received 46.8% and in 2014 46.3%, so it is fair to assume those numbers are fairly stable. They won one election and lost the other. So if we give the Dems 46.8% from the Unsure and Refused their number becomes 239.148 votes for Clinton leaving 271.852 for Trump.

Projected Clinton………………………………………………………………………………..239.148…………..46.8%

Projected Trump…………………………………………………………………………………271.852…………..53.2%

The unknown factors include the Democrat  “Ground game” and the Trump enthusiasm. Also the percentage of African Americans that will go for Trump.

Update: Today we have a new poll with Clinton up 6 points in a D+17 (Starts on page 8 of  12)

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/ECP_Final_Press_Release_and_Toplines_WI_IL_9.22_.pdf

This is why I hate writing up a post. I just finish and this pops up on my Twitters.

If one is rigging polls, you can bet they all are.

Update: New poll has Clinton winning with margins larger than Obama’s win in 2012 and 2008. 53/28

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/Simon-SIU_Poll_Sept_2016.pdf

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